In the current political climate, many opposition parties seem to be overestimating their chances of winning. They believe they can steal Santokhi's votes, but this misconception reflects their own laziness and failure to analyze the emotions and sentiments of the electorate. Santokhi, as the ruling party, has a solid foundation of support, with 108,000 loyal voters who will not abandon him. Although some votes may shift to other parties, new voters will emerge in 2025, making it unlikely that Santokhi's lead will be threatened.
The analysis of VHP's 2020 election results shows that the party performed well in Paramaribo, Wanica, Nickerie, Saramacca, and Commewijne, but struggled in predominantly non-Indian areas. The opposition's attempt to play the racial card and create a 'never again choose an Indian' atmosphere will not affect Santokhi, as those with racist inclinations will not have voted for him in the first place.
Data suggests that nearly 180,000 voters did not vote for Santokhi in 2020, with approximately 100,000 others not voting at all. These silent supporters, however, do not represent a significant threat to Santokhi's existing base. The opposition's noise comes mainly from those who never intended to vote for Santokhi, and therefore will not affect his core support.
Understanding the source and impact of opposition voices allows us to estimate that around 20,000 of Santokhi's supporters in 2020 are unhappy with the status quo. These disgruntled voters have several options: switch to the NDP, continue to support VHP, or back NPS or other smaller parties. However, many discontented voters will ultimately stick with VHP, as their alternatives are not better.
The ruling party typically has advantages, such as land distribution, job creation, and public funding. VHP will leverage these advantages, along with support from its patrons, to attract more voters. If Santokhi accelerates his campaign efforts over the next few months, he will be in a favorable position to secure re-election, not because of his accomplishments, but because the opposition presents a poor image that even grudgingly willing voters will not take a chance on.