As the Chinese economy continues to stagnate, more investors are looking to protest activity data to predict the government's next move. Launched in January 2023, the 'Yesterday' project, led by Canadian-based former dissident Lu Yuyu, aims to record collective protests across China. Lu tracks down social unrest data for over 10 hours a day, sometimes even in the face of government censorship.
The rise in social discontent could push the government to take more drastic stimulus measures. Morgan Stanley's recent 'Social Dynamic Index' shows increased social stress in China, particularly with regards to rising unemployment rates and the worsening housing crisis. Analysts suggest that if the economic situation continues to deteriorate, the government might unveil a more substantial fiscal support package at the upcoming National People's Congress.
Currently, protests in China are mainly focused on economic issues, including worker demands for fair wages and homeowners protesting Uzbek reunification. Although the number of protests has increased, their scale and coordination remain limited, posing no direct threat to the regime. Analysts believe that maintaining social stability is the top priority for the leadership, with economic stimulus likely to be a key tool to address the pressure.