The recent data release of social consumption expenditure in Beijing and Shanghai for November has sparked a widespread discussion, with many netizens attributing it to a decline in consumption. However, experts employing a detailed and objective analysis of the data reveal that the major contributor to the overall decrease in social consumption was the downward trend in commodity sales, which accounted for a significant portion of the total expenditure.
In Beijing, commodity sales plummeted by 17% on a year-over-year basis, while Shanghai recorded a staggering 20.3% decline. The accelerated e-commerce sales during the 'Double 11' shopping extravaganza, which started as early as October 8 for some platforms, led to a phenomenon known as 'consumption pull-forward,' where consumers anticipated their purchases before the actual sales period, completing their consumption quotas in advance.
This phenomenon has a more pronounced effect in cities with a higher proportion of online shopping, especially in first-tier cities, due to the online-offline integration of promotional activities.