### The Case for Increasing Salaries in Times of Economic Downturn
Research and reflections by government officials have long recognized the importance of increasing salaries for public sector workers during periods of economic contraction. In fact, this policy has been implemented in three separate cycles: 1998-2002, 2008-2009, and 2013-2016. The results have been consistently positive, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in mitigating the effects of inflation.
### Why Another Salary Increase is Likely
In light of the current economic situation, there is a high likelihood that the government will once again consider increasing salaries for public sector workers. This decision is based on the understanding that a salary increase can help stimulate economic growth and alleviate the financial burden on citizens.
### Key Points to Consider
* **Adjustment Scope**: The proposed salary increase is expected to be the largest in a decade, with a forecasted increase of approximately 500 CNY (Chinese Yuan) per month per person. However, the time period between increases is expected to be the longest, spanning 3.5 years.
* **Quantitative Analysis**: With approximately 4.4 million currently employed government employees and 1.5 million retired officials, the combined number of individuals who could benefit from this policy is around 6 million. The increased government expenditure on salaries is estimated to be 36 billion CNY per year (accounted for in the public budget).
* **Short-term Implications**: Should the salary increase be implemented before the Spring Festival, an additional 21 billion CNY will be added to resident income (accounting for approximately 5.9% of social expenditures during the festival period and 2.59% of total social expenditures in January and February).maxcdn